AfDB Report Projects Massive GDP Uplift by 2035, Driven by Five Critical AI Enablers in High-Impact Sectors
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has released a landmark report, “Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation,” which maps out a strategic roadmap for leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) to unlock massive economic and social potential across the continent.
The study, developed under the G20 Digital Transformation Working Group, asserts that the inclusive deployment of AI could generate up to $1 trillion in additional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2035, a sum equivalent to nearly one-third of Africa’s current economic output. This staggering potential is underpinned by Africa’s favorable demographics, expanding digital capacity, and ongoing sectoral reforms.
The report highlights that the AI-driven economic uplift will not be evenly distributed but will instead be concentrated in five high-impact priority sectors, which are projected to capture 58% of the total AI gains (approximately $580 billion) by 2035.
| Sector | Projected % of Total AI Gains | Rationale |
| Agriculture | 20% | Precision farming, yield optimization, climate resilience. |
| Wholesale & Retail | 14% | Supply chain optimization, demand forecasting, and digital marketplaces. |
| Manufacturing & Industry 4.0 | 9% | Factory efficiency, predictive maintenance, quality control. |
| Finance & Financial Inclusion | 8% | Credit scoring, fraud detection, extending services to underserved populations. |
| Health & Life Sciences | 7% | Diagnostics, disease surveillance, clinical decision support. |
These sectors were chosen based on their economic size, readiness for AI adoption, and strong potential to deliver inclusive development outcomes.
Realizing this $1 trillion opportunity hinges on developing five tightly connected foundational enablers. The report stresses that together, these components will foster a cycle of AI-driven growth.
- Data: Reliable and interoperable data is the foundation for effective AI insights. This includes building high-quality, relevant African datasets and ensuring clear governance.
- Compute: Scalable compute infrastructure, including cloud, on-premise, and edge solutions, is essential to deploy AI models efficiently across the continent.
- Skills: A skilled workforce is needed across the entire AI stack—from data engineers and ML model developers to product managers and domain experts.
- Trust: Public trust is built through robust governance, ethical guidelines, and regulatory frameworks that ensure AI is used safely and responsibly.
- Capital: Adequate investment is required to de-risk early pilots, accelerate innovation, and scale proven AI solutions across public and private sectors.
The AfDB outlines a decade-long roadmap to guide Africa’s AI readiness and deployment:
- Ignition (2025-2027): Focus on foundational policy frameworks, initiating pilot projects, and initial deployment of compute infrastructure.
- Consolidation (2028-2031): Scaling skills, capital, and regional infrastructure, alongside the deployment of regulatory ‘sandboxes’ for testing.
- Scale (2032-2035): Full activation and integration of AI across core government services and industry workflows, achieving maximum productivity gains.
“Achieving early milestones by 2026 will set Africa’s AI flywheel in motion,” said Ousmane Fall, Director of Industrial and Trade Development at the Bank. “Africa’s challenge is no longer what to do — it is doing it on time.”
The Bank confirmed its readiness to deploy investment to support the priority actions identified, urging the private sector and governments to swiftly translate the strategy into measurable productivity gains and quality job creation.
